A rethink over where new schools are built in Norfolk could be needed because of plummeting birth rates and housebuilders changing where they construct homes.

The warning came as councillors backed a plan earmarking where £308m could be spent on 26 new schools and expansions of existing schools within the next 10 years.

Councillors said flexibility was needed to ensure schools are not built in the wrong places - against a backdrop of falling birth rates in Norfolk and the possibility that some housing might not be built where originally predicted.

Norfolk County Council's plan, including 25 new primary schools and a new secondary school, has been based on population data and estimates for where new housing is likely to mean new or expanded schools will be needed.

Thetford & Brandon Times: Twenty-six new schools are due to be built under Norfolk County Council's plans for the next decadeTwenty-six new schools are due to be built under Norfolk County Council's plans for the next decade (Image: Northern Echo)

While the Conservative-controlled cabinet approved the plan at a meeting on Wednesday (January 11), leading councillor said two issues could mean it needs to be altered in the years ahead.

One is nutrient neutrality, an issue which councils in Norfolk have been grappling with.

Councils have been unable to approve the building of homes in the catchment areas of the River Wensum and the Broads for almost a year because of a directive by government advisor Natural England.

Amid concern that new homes could increase the nutrients running into waterways, potentially damaging species, councils have been blocked from granting permission until it can be proven developments would not cause further pollution.

Thetford & Brandon Times: The issue of nutrient neutrality has blocked Norfolk councils from approving homes within the Broads catchment areaThe issue of nutrient neutrality has blocked Norfolk councils from approving homes within the Broads catchment area (Image: Mike Page)

While efforts are under way to find solutions which would allow permission to be granted, councillors said their planning for where homes are likely to be built could be thrown off course if developers choose to build elsewhere.

Thetford & Brandon Times: John Fisher, Norfolk County Council cabinet member for children's servicesJohn Fisher, Norfolk County Council cabinet member for children's services (Image: Norfolk County Council)

John Fisher, the council's cabinet member for children's services, said: "Nutrient neutrality may impact on the speed of build out and, in fact, it may impact on where some of the new build goes.

"For example, some parts of Norfolk are outside of the nutrient neutrality area and if developers have sites in both areas, they might decide to develop those in a different programme to what they proposed a couple of years ago before nutrient neutrality hit the scene."

Thetford & Brandon Times: Modelling of where new homes will be built could be affected by a planning permission block in parts of NorfolkModelling of where new homes will be built could be affected by a planning permission block in parts of Norfolk (Image: Chris Bishop)

Mr Fisher also said changes in the birth rate could also influence where schools end up being needed in the lifespan of the 10-year plan.

In 2012, there were 9,622 children born in Norfolk, but in 2021, that number had fallen to 7,853 and Mr Fisher said it was difficult to predict how the figure would fluctuate in the years ahead.

He said: "For example, at the moment in Hellesdon, we have identified the need for a school and we have identified a site with the developer.

"But because of a couple of factors where there will not be quite the same number of houses built and also the falling birthrate, then we are now looking at whether that school is necessary and whether we expand the existing four infant schools in the area, instead of building anew.

"Similarly, the actual ratio of families moving into new houses in north Norfolk is different, compared to the rest of the county.

"A lot of the family houses are actually taken up by retired people, so the statistics that we work to in north Norfolk are slightly different to other areas of the county."

Mr Fisher said: "It is very much a flexible programme and it has to be."

Thetford & Brandon Times: Graham Plant, deputy leader of Norfolk County CouncilGraham Plant, deputy leader of Norfolk County Council (Image: Jamie Honeywood Archant Norwich Norfolk)

Graham Plant, deputy leader of the council, said it was important to keep housebuilding statistics and birth rate data in mind.

He said: "If the data is showing there is a decline in the number of children, then we shouldn't be looking at putting more schools in that location at this particular moment in time."

The plan does propose new primary schools in Attleborough (two), Aylsham, Beeston Park (two), Blofield, Bradwell, east of Broadland Business Park, Caister-on-Sea, Cringleford, Fakenham, Hellesdon, Little Plumstead, Poringland, Rackheath (two), south of Salhouse Road, Silfield, Taverham, Thetford (three), and West Winch (two).

A replacement school building is planned for Long Stratton, with plans to increase capacity at the existing West Winch primary.

A new secondary school is planned for north Norwich, with expansions or increased capacity at Aylsham, Fakenham, Hellesdon, Hethersett, King’s Lynn, Long Stratton, Thetford, and Wymondham.